Europe slowly feeling better?

I can’t escape the impression that things are slowly getting better in Europe. A quick browse through the news headlines across Europe reveals the following:

– 1,900 jobs created in Vienna by foreign companies last year
– GlaxoSmithKline to create 1,000 jobs in the UK with a £500M investment in a new factory
– Armenia’s exports grow by 20.1%
– Chinese firm looking to invest €600M in Larnaca, Cyprus
– Unemployment levels in Germany will continue to fall this year, even if not so sharply as in the past two years, the Institute for Employment Research (IAB) forecast on Thursday.
– Bank of China opens second branch in Budapest, Hungary to be used as spearhead for expansion in Central & Eastern Europe.
– Kingfisher’s & Zara’s profits up dramatically

Investor confidence also seems to be returning to countries such as Italy and Spain, who have seen their borrowing costs shrink, while the ‘safe-haven’ Germany – whose value was boosted in the past years by the lack of trust in southern European countries – is slightly depreciating. However, the Eurozone purchasing managers’ indices show private sector economic activity fell back into contraction in March, undermining hopes of a steady recovery. It’s still a confusing picture, but the seeds of recovery are starting to sprout…

If you have studied economics, you might want to have a closer look at the Kondratieff cycle, which is a very long term economic cycle. All other, shorter, economic cycles will fluctuate along this 50 – 70 year cycle, and indications (and the theory) are pointing towards a steady upwards trend from 2014 onwards. Good news then, in theory that is.

So, the economic climate will continue to improve, the Euro will stabilise and employment levels will improve from now on based on the theory. Companies and people are doing their bits, we only need politicians to do theirs now…..


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